Wednesday's Madden showdown is a single game, DEN @ JAX, and it locks at 10:00 p.m. ET (7:00 p.m. PT) on Wed 11/11. The format uses a captain slot that scores 1.5x points at 1.5x salary, with a $50,000 cap.
Our model's top-ranked play is Trevor Lawrence (JAX) at $11,600. He carries a ceiling of 38.2 and a DraftKings average of 20.3, the highest of any player on our board. Bhayshul Tuten (JAX) follows at $10,200 with a ceiling of 30.0 and an average of 16.6. Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX) costs $8,200 and offers a 26.9 ceiling against a 13.3 average, and Brenton Strange (JAX) sits at $7,200 with a 26.0 ceiling. On the DEN side, J.K. Dobbins ($8,600, ceiling 23.9) and Courtland Sutton ($9,000, ceiling 23.4) both average 12.6.
The clearest value is Jakobi Meyers (JAX) at $4,000. His DraftKings average is only 6.5, but his ceiling of 31.1 is among the best on the slate, which makes him a cheap way to chase upside and free up cap room for the expensive names. Cam Little (JAX) at $4,600 is another low-cost option, with a ceiling of 19.0 and an average of 9.2.
The crowd is heading toward Lawrence, whose projected ownership is 67%. Tuten and Sutton are tied at 47%, so there is plenty of overlap at the top. Thomas is projected at 38%, Strange at 33%, Dobbins at 30% and Little at 28%. Meyers, at 24%, is the least-owned of the top plays despite his ceiling, which could help separate a lineup from the field.
Our model's top lineup uses the full $50,000 and takes a different route than the crowd. It puts Evan Engram in the captain slot at $10,200, then adds Bo Nix ($9,600), Courtland Sutton ($9,000), J.K. Dobbins ($8,600), Brian Thomas Jr. ($8,200) and Troy Franklin ($4,400) at FLEX.
Set your lineups before the 10:00 p.m. ET lock on Wednesday.
Follow @numeric_dfs on X.