Rain wiped out practice and qualifying at Kansas. The metric set the grid, and it put the points leader 22nd. Layne Riggs is my first click at $12,500.
Riggs leads the standings by three points over Kaden Honeycutt, 2,125 to 2,122 on ESPN. He has six wins, four poles, and 10 top fives. Brett Winningham had it at Speedway Digest on Sept. 25: the points leader starts 22nd. On DraftKings, every spot he passes is a point. A top-five run from there is a big day, and nobody in the standings has more wins.
Nobody turned a lap at Kansas this weekend. Shane Walters at Racing News (Sept. 25) quoted it: "both practice and qualifying has been canceled." There's no practice speed to hide behind. When you're guessing, play the best trucks starting furthest back.
That's Christian Eckes at $10,500 from 25th. He has six top fives and 11 top 10s this year. He hasn't won, and he's eighth in points. From 25th, he doesn't need a win.
Chandler Smith is $9,800 from 15th. He has two wins, nine top fives, and 12 top 10s, and he's third in points. He's the one core piece who isn't buried, and he's who I want if Riggs has a bad day.
Cheap trucks are where the lineup gets built. Daniel Dye is $6,700, starting 35th, with a 42-point DK average. There's nowhere to go but forward. Stephen Mallozzi is $5,200 with a 33-point average from 23rd. Caleb Costner is $5,000 and starts last. Riggs, Eckes, Smith, Dye, Mallozzi, and Costner comes out to $49,700. Brenden Queen ($5,900, 21st, four top 10s) is the swap if you'd rather have a regular in the last slot.
The front is where I'm light. Nick Sanchez has the pole at $9,500, and Jake Garcia starts next to him at $7,500. You're betting on laps led with those two, and nobody has seen a lap. Honeycutt is $11,500 and starts at the front, fourth or fifth depending on whose list you read. He's second in points with 11 top fives and could easily win. But at that price and from that spot, a win is about the only way he pays off. Brent Crews at $10,000 is in the same place.
Riggs from 22nd, then bring the rest of the lineup up from behind him. See you at Kansas.
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