Thursday's NBA showdown is a single game, MIA @ GSW, with a $50,000 salary cap and a captain slot that scores 1.5x points at 1.5x salary. The slate locks at 10:00 p.m. ET (7:00 p.m. PT).
Giannis Antetokounmpo sits atop our model's ranking at $11,200, with a ceiling of 82.2 and a DraftKings average of 46.0. No one else on the slate comes close to that ceiling. Behind him, Yaxel Lendeborg ($9,000, ceiling 64.7), Bam Adebayo ($8,600, ceiling 63.5) and Stephen Curry ($9,400, ceiling 63.4) form a tight second tier. Adebayo and Curry carry DraftKings averages of 40.0 and 40.7, while Lendeborg averages 39.6.
Value is where the roster gets built. Bobby Portis is $5,800 with a ceiling of 41.2, and Brandon Williams is $5,400 with a ceiling of 39.1. Williams' DraftKings average is just 11.6, so his case rests on ceiling rather than recent production. Portis averages 17.9. Davion Mitchell at $7,600 (ceiling 46.3, average 31.3) and Brandin Podziemski at $8,200 (ceiling 47.6, average 33.7) sit in the middle band. Note that Gui Santos, Jimmy Butler, Kristaps Porzingis and Moses Moody, all GSW, carry OUT tags on DraftKings.
We don't have ownership figures for this slate, so there is no read on where the crowd is headed.
Our model's top lineup uses the full $50,000. It puts Giannis Antetokounmpo at captain for $16,800, then adds Georges Niang at $4,000, Stephen Curry at $9,400, Graham Ike at $3,200, Davion Mitchell at $7,600 and Yaxel Lendeborg at $9,000. The cheap pair of Niang and Ike funds the star-heavy core around Giannis.
Lock is Thursday at 10:00 p.m. ET.
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