Tuesday's showdown slate is a single game, OKC @ POR, with a $50,000 cap and a captain slot that scores 1.5x points at 1.5x salary. It locks at 11:00 p.m. ET (8:00 p.m. PT).
At the top of our model's ranking, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of OKC costs $11,400 and carries the highest ceiling on the board at 68.2, backed by a DraftKings average of 42.4. Deni Avdija of POR is next on the ceiling chart at 57.5 for $10,000, with a DraftKings average of 38.5. Damian Lillard (POR, $8,600, ceiling 45.6) and Ajay Mitchell (OKC, $8,000, ceiling 45.5) round out the pricier tier, and Mitchell's DraftKings average of 30.5 shows he has been producing close to that level.
The value plays are where our model finds its edge. Micah Potter (POR) is $3,200 with a ceiling of 34.8, and Branden Carlson (POR) is $2,800 with a ceiling of 32.3. Both are priced low enough to fit alongside the stars, though their DraftKings averages of 9.8 and 6.0 tell you the ceiling is the whole case. Alex Caruso (OKC) at $5,000 offers a 35.0 ceiling, and Jrue Holiday (POR) at $7,000 carries a 43.6 ceiling in the middle of the pricing.
Roster availability shapes this slate. DraftKings lists Chet Holmgren, Jaylin Williams, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace and Thomas Sorber of OKC as OUT, along with Ja Morant, Vit Krejci and Shaedon Sharpe of POR. With that many names tagged OUT, the playable pool is thin, and minutes will be concentrated among those who remain.
Our model's top lineup uses $49,700 of the $50,000 cap. It puts Gilgeous-Alexander at captain for $17,100, then adds Avdija ($10,000), Mitchell ($8,000) and Holiday ($7,000) in UTIL spots. To afford that star power, it fills out the roster with two cheap pieces, Micah Peavy at $4,000 and Bennett Stirtz at $3,600.
Lock is Tuesday at 11:00 p.m. ET, so finalize your lineups before then.
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