The Wednesday 10/28 main tennis slate on DraftKings runs 12 matches, from Struff @ Hanfmann to de Minaur @ Tien, on a $50,000 cap. Lineups lock at 7:10 a.m. ET (4:10 a.m. PT), so this is an early-morning decision.
At the top of our model's ranking, Taylor Fritz costs $10,700 and projects for 75.7 with a ceiling of 131.1, the highest on the board. Jakub Mensik is far cheaper at $8,700, projecting 75.4 with a 121.4 ceiling. Daniil Medvedev carries the highest raw projection among the top plays at 79.4 for $9,900, though his ceiling of 118.4 sits below those two. Novak Djokovic ($9,300, 75.0), Brandon Nakashima ($9,100, 74.9), Casper Ruud ($9,000, 74.9) and Hubert Hurkacz ($8,800, 74.8) are bunched tightly, so price is the tiebreaker among them.
The cheap end is where this slate gets interesting. Rinky Hijikata, at $4,600, projects for 71.4, the best rate on the board at 15.5 points per $1,000, though his ceiling is only 34.5. Daniel Merida ($5,200) projects 72.3 at 13.9 points per $1,000, and Remy Bertola ($5,600) projects 70.9 at 12.7. All three are projected at just 6% ownership, which makes them a low-cost way to differentiate.
The crowd is likely to gather around Mensik, Nakashima and Ruud, each projected at 25% ownership. Hurkacz is also at 25%, while Fritz, Medvedev and Djokovic sit at 22%. Fritz offers the biggest ceiling at a slightly lower ownership than the field's favorites.
Our model's top lineup uses the full $50,000: Fritz ($10,700), Nakashima ($9,100), Ruud ($9,000), Mensik ($8,700), Yannick Hanfmann ($7,300) and Merida ($5,200). It pairs the board's best ceiling in Fritz with a pair of the most popular plays and one of the sharpest values.
Lock is Wednesday at 7:10 a.m. ET, so set your lineups before then.
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