Wednesday's main DraftKings tennis slate covers seven matches under a $50,000 cap, led by Tabilo @ Sonego and Norrie @ Fritz. It locks at 7:00 a.m. ET (4:00 a.m. PT), so early decisions matter.
Our model ranks Taylor Fritz first at $9,500, with a projection of 79.5 and a ceiling of 112.5. That ceiling is the highest on the slate. Casper Ruud is right behind at $9,800, projected for 75.3 with a 109.7 ceiling. Karolina Muchova, at $8,300, is projected for 78.7 with an 89.8 ceiling.
Aryna Sabalenka and Mirra Andreeva both project for 78.5, but their salaries sit apart at $7,800 and $7,500. Sabalenka's ceiling is 80.5, so her projection leaves little room above it. Andreeva's ceiling of 77.8 falls just under her projection, which suggests a tight range of outcomes.
The best value sits at the bottom of the salary scale. Aleksandr Shevchenko costs $5,300 and projects for 71.0, or 13.4 points per $1,000. Cameron Norrie is $5,600 for 72.3, at 12.9 per $1,000. Miomir Kecmanovic is $6,000 for 70.7, at 11.8. Each of the three carries 6% projected ownership.
The crowd is likely to cluster elsewhere. Holger Rune, Ugo Humbert and Lorenzo Sonego each come in at 25% projected ownership, with Fritz and Ruud both at 22%. Fritz and Ruud project better than Rune, Humbert and Sonego at a similar level of popularity, so that group is where you can find separation.
Our model's top lineup uses the full $50,000: Casper Ruud at $9,800, Taylor Fritz at $9,500, Ugo Humbert at $8,900, Aryna Sabalenka at $7,800, Elina Svitolina at $7,100 and Alejandro Tabilo at $6,900. Lock is 7:00 a.m. ET.
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